Once the first shot is fired, all bets are off as to the progress and outcome of a war. Presumably those strikes would be contained within the borders of Ukraine, but if they reached into Russia to hit supply lines, it would open Europe itself to missile attacks from Russia thus enlarging the conflict. Those Russian advantages suggest that NATO would need to counter with intermediate range missiles in place or armored infantry adding another dimension to a land war. Add to that the need to move troops forward from Europe to Ukraine and Russia has a distinct tactical advantage. Russia also has the advantage of acting as a single force, whereas the West would probably consult with its members before taking action, thus giving the Russians valuable time. The fact that America goes on vacation from Christmas to New Years, means mustering a response to a Russian offense would not be as coherent as it might otherwise be. Given the degree of current preparation, it is possible that an offensive would be mounted at Christmas. Being the opposing force fighting in Russia during the winter is a bad idea - as both Napoleon and Hitler discovered to their ruin. Putin is a careful despot and you can be sure he has done the math on his chances of winning.Īssuming that Russia invades Ukraine, when would it do so? It has massed equipment along the border and has troops there as well as additional troops ready to deploy on short notice. Problem solved, except that an invasion would be a big risk and potentially very costly depending on the NATO response. The other solution is certainly more permanent for Putin – invade and occupy Ukraine. Backing away from that might satisfy Putin at least temporarily. Right now it is essentially an associate of the European Union with intentions to formally apply for membership in 2024 and join after 2030.
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One solution would be for the West to promise that Ukraine would remain a buffer nation and not become part of NATO with full NATO protection. is war weary and reluctant to engage in an all out war. Putin may take only a piece of Ukraine advancing until he senses a major counter threat from the West. The big questions become exactly how much does Putin want for his own protection and how far is he willing to go to get it? His prior invasion of Ukraine suggests a limited war against a weaker opponent falls within his risk parameters. would have a fit about it like it did over Cuba in 1962. If Russia got cozy with Mexico and they became closer partners, the U.S. Putin is distinctly unnerved by the prospect of Ukraine becoming part of NATO because it could lead to moving NATO defensive systems closer to Russia. Putin would like Ukraine in his orbit not only for its resources, but because it would extend a buffer between Russia and the NATO countries to its west. Relative to the much larger 1,000,000 man Russian army, Ukraine’s 250,000 man army could not put up a sustained fight. If Putin needed help invading Ukraine, Lukashenko would oblige. Belarus is run by Alexander Lukashenko who is an autocrat backed by Putin. With a large land border with Russia and Belarus, there are plenty of routes for invasion. Its western border is largely with Poland. To its southwest is little Moldova and larger Romania. It’s southern border is the Black Sea with valuable seaports and a gateway to the Mediterranean. Ukraine is bordered to its north by Belarus and to its north and east by Russia. The first successful land grab since the expansion of the USSR after WWII. The invasion ended in a stalemate in eastern Ukraine with the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russian. There are ethnic pockets across the Ukraine who do have mixed sympathies in favor of Russia that enabled his move. He invaded the eastern section of Ukraine and the adjacent Crimean peninsula under the guise of local separatists wanting closer ties to Russia. Vladimir Putin does not like this one bit. It only recently managed to move toward democracy and to shift its orientation to Europe rather than Russia. It has been trampled across in the last hundred years by the German and Russian armies.
It was the breadbasket for the former Soviet Union. The history of Ukraine ties it tightly to Russia. These could be considered as possibilities for two separate and distinct wars, but the higher likelihood would be a single war for the U.S. There are two potential fronts for a new war. This is a pessimistic forecast about that war. Several forces are converging to suggest a new war involving the U.S.